First, before I forget, a probability challenge that came up during the conversation today: What is the actual probability of winning the solitaire game that Grandma plays? The game goes as follows: shuffle the deck, then hold it face-down. One at a time, move cards from the bottom of the deck to the top, flipping them face-up. You can then remove cards from the stack of face-up cards as follows: if two cards are between cards of the same number or suit, remove those two cards (example: J 2 5 J --> remove the 2 and the 5; H S D H --> remove the spade and the diamond). If you get four of any number or suit in a row, remove all four. Recalculate as you remove things, so for example J 3 J 2 5 J --> J 3 J J --> J J. The goal is, obviously, to end up with zero cards left when you've gone through the deck (i.e., to end with four in a row of some number or suit). So, the outcome is 100% determined after you finish shuffling (making it a very mindless version of solitaire). So David wanted to know, what should the odds of winning be? Something divided by 52!, obviously...but what? I don't feel confident this can be solved, but clearly the answer exists, since a certain fraction of all possible orders will lead to a win...I just don't see an easy way of calculating that answer.

Meanwhile, Christmas was lovely, as our Christmases are wont to be. I got a bunch of cooking stuff, which I asked for, and a nice carry-on suitcase, which I also asked for, and some beautiful earrings, a book of photos by my favorite photographer (this guy) one of these, which is amazing, a bear sculpture, two stuffed animals, and a pony from Sarah, which I also asked for. It was a My Little Pony, I believe, and she even put airholes in the box for it. Definitely one of the sweetest presents I've gotten. Of course, the tree did fall on Annie...and Watson did continually feel the need to mark the living room as his territory...but by and large no one Ruined Christmas. And I'm just so impressed with my family every time I have occasion to gather with them. It's amazing to see people whose births I remember growing up into such interesting, complicated people. Elizabeth and my brother and Sarah and I had an intense discussion of the seventh Harry Potter book. Noah's still too young to discuss literature with, but I just love watching him grow up. Steve and Diana and Jon are so satisfying to talk to. I know I'm not being very articulate about this; it's so hard to describe people concisely. But I'm so lucky to have a family with such interesting people in it. Even though by the time we were leaving, I felt like snapping at anyone who so much as looked at me...but hey, that's just how it goes on Christmas evening, right?

Of course, someone needs to hurry up and have kids. Sarah is the youngest of the Christmas Eve Crowd, and she's like nine. Since it's unlikely that anyone in my generation will have kids for the next, oh....minimum of four years, more realistically seven or eight years, we're going to have a period with no little kids around on Christmas morning, and that's sad. That means Sarah will be about sixteen before she stops being the youngest! Who's going to scamper around getting everyone presents? Well, Elizabeth is the one with the most easily available steady boyfriend, so I think it falls to her. She'll just have to put this whole newspaper thing aside for the moment, and do her duty for the family.

In closing, Ian Anderson's take on Christmas:

Got a birthday card at Christmas; it made me think of Jesus Christ.
It said “I love you” in small letters; I simply had to read it twice.
Wood smoke curled from blackened chimneys; the smell of frost was in the air;
Pole star hovered in the blackness. I looked again: it wasn’t there.

People have showered me with presents, while their minds were fixed on other things.
Sleigh bells, bearded red suit uncles, pointy trees and angel wings.
I am the shadow in your Christmas, I am the corner of your smile.
Perfunctory in celebration; you offer content but no style.

Oh that little baby Jesus, he got a birthday card or three.
Gold trinkets and cheap frankincense, some penny baubles for his tree.
Have some time off for good behaviour, forty days, give or take a few.
Hey there, sweet baby Jesus, let’s share a birthday card with you.